SOFA Score Machine Learning Sepsis Mortality Prediction


  • Evaluation of repeated SOFA scores may provide a better 30 day sepsis mortality predictability.

  • Machine learning algorithms outperform conventional SOFA delta scores on 30 day mortality.

  • Several limitations present with longitudinal SOFA scores.


  • Delta SOFA scores comparing day 1 to day 7 are used to predict 30 day mortality probability.

  • Longitudinal SOFA scores with machine learning algorithms may improve from the delta SOFA score limitations.

  • Development cohort 252 patients; 7 ICUs with Sepsis-3 diagnostic criteria.

  • Validation cohort 1,790 patients, retrospective public database.

  • 7 different machine learning algorithms evaluated.

  • All models used to predict 30 day mortality.

  • Machine learning algorithms outperformed conventional delta SOFA score 30 day mortality predictions (P<0.05).
  • The superior results were maintained even with a shorter timeframe than 7 days.

  • Unknows Remain:

    • Although earlier predictability was found, 3 days maybe too delayed in the clinical setting.
    • It is unknown what happens to predictability when missing values in SOFA determination exist.
    • Addition of more patient context parameters than SOFA values maybe of greater benefit.


  • Machine learning based algorithms of daily SOFA trajectory produced significantly greater accuracy of mortality predictability as compared to conventional daily SOFA delta scores.

  • Further investigation is needed, but this appears to be the appropriate promising direction for individual patient assessments.

  • Several unknown areas remain to be determined.

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Erkan Hassan is the Co-Founder & Chief Clinical Officer of Sepsis Program Optimization where he designs & oversees the implementation of solutions to optimize sepsis programs.

To discuss your organization’s Barriers of Effective Sepsis Care, contact Erkan by phone (844) 4SEPSIS (844-473-7747), email (, or video chat.